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Antiviral drugs will initially be the mainstay of pharmaceutical intervention in an influenza pandemic. Used primarily for therapeutic treatment, they can also lower transmission in the community. We use mathematical modelling to study the impact of different antiviral coverage strategies, with a limited stockpile. Aggressive coverage offers several advantages, even if this should exhaust the stockpile prematurely. However, where a sub-group of the population has a high mortality risk, a strategy to minimise deaths must be carefully balanced, and is not always in agreement with prioritising treatment for those at risk. We discuss implications for public health planning.

Original publication




Journal article



Publication Date





83 - 88


Antiviral Agents, Computer Simulation, Drug Utilization, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype, Influenza, Human, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Public Health Practice