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Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Original publication

DOI

10.1126/science.abj0113

Type

Journal article

Journal

Science

Publication Date

20/08/2021

Volume

373

Pages

889 - 895

Keywords

COVID-19, COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing, Communicable Disease Control, Genome, Viral, Humans, Incidence, Phylogeography, SARS-CoV-2, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Travel, United Kingdom