Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

OBJECTIVE.: We aimed to systematically review risk factors for criminal recidivism in individuals given community sentences. METHODS.: We searched seven bibliographic databases and additionally conducted targeted searches for studies that investigated risk factors for any repeat offending in individuals who had received community (non-custodial) sentences. We included investigations that reported data on at least one risk factor and allowed calculations of odds ratios (ORs). If a similar risk factor was reported in three or more primary studies, they were grouped into domains, and pooled ORs were calculated. RESULTS.: We identified 15 studies from 5 countries, which reported data on 14 independent samples and 246,608 individuals. We found that several dynamic (modifiable) risk factors were associated with criminal recidivism in community-sentenced populations, including mental health needs (OR = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-1.6), substance misuse (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.9), association with antisocial peers (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.3-3.7), employment problems (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3-2.5), marital status (OR = 1.6, 95%: 1.4-1.8), and low income (OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-3.4). The strength of these associations was comparable to that of static (non-modifiable) risk factors, such as age, gender, and criminal history. CONCLUSION.: Assessing dynamic (modifiable) risk factors should be considered in all individuals given community sentences. The further integration of mental health, substance misuse, and criminal justice services may reduce reoffending risk in community-sentenced populations.

Original publication




Journal article


CNS Spectr

Publication Date





252 - 263


Recidivism, community sentences, meta-analysis, probation, rearrest, reconviction, reoffending, risk factors, systematic review