Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

In many countries health system data remain too weak to accurately enumerate Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases. In response, cartographic approaches have been developed that link maps of infection prevalence with mathematical relationships to predict the incidence rate of clinical malaria. Microsimulation (or 'agent-based') models represent a powerful new paradigm for defining such relationships; however, differences in model structure and calibration data mean that no consensus yet exists on the optimal form for use in disease-burden estimation. Here we develop a Bayesian statistical procedure combining functional regression-based model emulation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to calibrate three selected microsimulation models against a purpose-built data set of age-structured prevalence and incidence counts. This allows the generation of ensemble forecasts of the prevalence-incidence relationship stratified by age, transmission seasonality, treatment level and exposure history, from which we predict accelerating returns on investments in large-scale intervention campaigns as transmission and prevalence are progressively reduced.

Original publication

DOI

10.1038/ncomms9170

Type

Journal article

Journal

Nat Commun

Publication Date

08/09/2015

Volume

6

Keywords

Adolescent, Adult, Africa, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Bayes Theorem, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Malaria, Falciparum, Markov Chains, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Monte Carlo Method, Prevalence, Young Adult