Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential.
Mo L., Zohner CM., Reich PB., Liang J., de Miguel S., Nabuurs G-J., Renner SS., van den Hoogen J., Araza A., Herold M., Mirzagholi L., Ma H., Averill C., Phillips OL., Gamarra JGP., Hordijk I., Routh D., Abegg M., Adou Yao YC., Alberti G., Almeyda Zambrano AM., Alvarado BV., Alvarez-Dávila E., Alvarez-Loayza P., Alves LF., Amaral I., Ammer C., Antón-Fernández C., Araujo-Murakami A., Arroyo L., Avitabile V., Aymard GA., Baker TR., Bałazy R., Banki O., Barroso JG., Bastian ML., Bastin J-F., Birigazzi L., Birnbaum P., Bitariho R., Boeckx P., Bongers F., Bouriaud O., Brancalion PHS., Brandl S., Brearley FQ., Brienen R., Broadbent EN., Bruelheide H., Bussotti F., Cazzolla Gatti R., César RG., Cesljar G., Chazdon RL., Chen HYH., Chisholm C., Cho H., Cienciala E., Clark C., Clark D., Colletta GD., Coomes DA., Cornejo Valverde F., Corral-Rivas JJ., Crim PM., Cumming JR., Dayanandan S., de Gasper AL., Decuyper M., Derroire G., DeVries B., Djordjevic I., Dolezal J., Dourdain A., Engone Obiang NL., Enquist BJ., Eyre TJ., Fandohan AB., Fayle TM., Feldpausch TR., Ferreira LV., Finér L., Fischer M., Fletcher C., Frizzera L., Gianelle D., Glick HB., Harris DJ., Hector A., Hemp A., Hengeveld G., Hérault B., Herbohn JL., Hillers A., Honorio Coronado EN., Hui C., Ibanez T., Imai N., Jagodziński AM., Jaroszewicz B., Johannsen VK., Joly CA., Jucker T., Jung I., Karminov V., Kartawinata K., Kearsley E., Kenfack D., Kennard DK., Kepfer-Rojas S., Keppel G., Khan ML., Killeen TJ., Kim HS., Kitayama K., Köhl M., Korjus H., Kraxner F., Kucher D., Laarmann D., Lang M., Lu H., Lukina NV., Maitner BS., Malhi Y., Marcon E., Marimon BS., Marimon-Junior BH., Marshall AR., Martin EH., Meave JA., Melo-Cruz O., Mendoza C., Mendoza-Polo I., Miscicki S., Merow C., Monteagudo Mendoza A., Moreno VS., Mukul SA., Mundhenk P., Nava-Miranda MG., Neill D., Neldner VJ., Nevenic RV., Ngugi MR., Niklaus PA., Oleksyn J., Ontikov P., Ortiz-Malavasi E., Pan Y., Paquette A., Parada-Gutierrez A., Parfenova EI., Park M., Parren M., Parthasarathy N., Peri PL., Pfautsch S., Picard N., Piedade MTF., Piotto D., Pitman NCA., Poulsen AD., Poulsen JR., Pretzsch H., Ramirez Arevalo F., Restrepo-Correa Z., Rodeghiero M., Rolim SG., Roopsind A., Rovero F., Rutishauser E., Saikia P., Salas-Eljatib C., Saner P., Schall P., Schelhaas M-J., Schepaschenko D., Scherer-Lorenzen M., Schmid B., Schöngart J., Searle EB., Seben V., Serra-Diaz JM., Sheil D., Shvidenko AZ., Silva-Espejo JE., Silveira M., Singh J., Sist P., Slik F., Sonké B., Souza AF., Stereńczak KJ., Svenning J-C., Svoboda M., Swanepoel B., Targhetta N., Tchebakova N., Ter Steege H., Thomas R., Tikhonova E., Umunay PM., Usoltsev VA., Valencia R., Valladares F., van der Plas F., Van Do T., van Nuland ME., Vasquez RM., Verbeeck H., Viana H., Vibrans AC., Vieira S., von Gadow K., Wang H-F., Watson JV., Werner GDA., Wiser SK., Wittmann F., Woell H., Wortel V., Zagt R., Zawiła-Niedźwiecki T., Zhang C., Zhao X., Zhou M., Zhu Z-X., Zo-Bi IC., Gann GD., Crowther TW.
Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.